Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Author(s): Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312

Series Editor(s): Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield


"This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and psychologists, provides an introduction to the subject and a detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the reader through the design of an elicitation method and details examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences disciplines."  (Zentralblatt Math, 1 August 2013)

"This is an interesting, well-written book that will be valuable to any decision maker who much rely on expert judgments, any statistician who uses Bayesian statistics, and any researcher who wishes to understand the field of elicitation." (Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 2009)

"This book provides an excellent introduction and working reference to the subject of its title and should be an invaluable aid to producers and consumers of expert opinion." (Biometrics, September 2008)

"I recommend 'Uncertain Judgements' as an excellent source for a wide variety of research." (Psychometrika, March 2008)

"…will be of interest to those who are concerned with or interested primarily in the practicalities of modeling expert judgement and opinion." (International Journal of Marketing, January 2007)