Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support

Editor(s): Karin Riley, Peter Webley, Matthew Thompson

Published Online: 19 NOV 2016 12:16AM EST

Print ISBN: 9781119027867

Online ISBN: 9781119028116

DOI: 10.1002/9781119028116

About this Book

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts.  In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment.  We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope.  Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government.  Key themes and highlights include:

  • Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included
  • Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty
  • Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes
  • Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences

This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists.

Table of contents

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  1. Part I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support

  2. Part II: Geological Hazards

    1. Chapter 6

      Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real-Time VATD (pages 57–87)

      Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D. Jones, Reza Madankan, E. Ramona Stefanescu and Solene Pouget

    2. Chapter 8

      Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties (pages 105–124)

      Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan Rădulescu, Damien Martin, Andreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O'Dowd and Gerhard Wotawa

    3. Chapter 9

      Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model (pages 125–145)

      Pablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito and Warner Marzocchi

  3. Part III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards

    1. Chapter 14

      Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties (pages 215–230)

      Charles Ichoku, Luke T. Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang and Johannes W. Kaiser

    2. Chapter 22

      Prospects in Landslide Prediction (pages 329–336)

      Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao and Adam Schlosser

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