Original Article

The Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus in an English Community: A 20-year Follow-up of the Whickham Survey

  1. M.P.J. Vanderpump1,*,
  2. W.M.G. Tunbridge1,
  3. J.M. French2,
  4. D. Appleton2,
  5. D. Bates3,
  6. H. Rodgers3,
  7. J. Grimley Evans4,
  8. F. Clark5,
  9. F. Tunbridge5,
  10. E.T. Young6

Article first published online: 19 JUL 2004

DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9136(199608)13:8<741::AID-DIA173>3.0.CO;2-4

Issue

Diabetic Medicine

Diabetic Medicine

Volume 13, Issue 8, pages 741–747, August 1996

Additional Information

How to Cite

Vanderpump, M., Tunbridge, W., French, J., Appleton, D., Bates, D., Rodgers, H., Evans, J. G., Clark, F., Tunbridge, F. and Young, E. (1996), The Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus in an English Community: A 20-year Follow-up of the Whickham Survey. Diabetic Medicine, 13: 741–747. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9136(199608)13:8<741::AID-DIA173>3.0.CO;2-4

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Medicine, Newcastle General Hospital

  2. 2

    Department of Medical Statistics, University of Newcastle

  3. 3

    Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Newcastle

  4. 4

    Department of Clinical Geratology, University of Oxford

  5. 5

    Department of Medicine, The Freeman Hospital

  6. 6

    Department of Medicine, Wansbeck General Hospital

*Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology, City General Hospital, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 6QG

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 19 JUL 2004
  2. Article first published online: 19 JUL 2004
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 7 APR 1996

Funded by

  • Department of Health, Newcastle District Research Committee / Northern Regional Health Authority Small Grants Committee / Novo-Nordisk Ltd / Northern Regional Research Fellowship

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Keywords:

  • Diabetes mellitus;
  • Twenty-year incidence data;
  • Risk factors;
  • Screening

Abstract

The original Whickham Survey documented the prevalence of diabetes and lipid disorders in a sample of 2779 adults aged 18 years and over, which matched the British population structure. The aim of the 20-year follow-up study was to determine the incidence and natural history of diabetes. Outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality at follow-up were determined in over 97 % of the original population. Ninety-four subjects had been identified and treated for diabetes since the first survey, including 17 subjects identified as having a fasting plasma glucose ≥7.8 mmol l−1 at follow-up. The incidence of diabetes for the total population was 2.2 1000−1 year−1 (95 % confidence interval 1.8, 2.6). The risk factors identified at first survey were corrected for age, cut-off at the 95 centile and entered into a log linear model. Those which strongly predicted development of diabetes in the total population were fasting blood glucose (odds ratio (OR) (with 95 % confidence intervals) =2.3 (1.5, 3.5)) and body mass index (OR = 2.2 (1.5, 3.3)) in men, and fasting blood glucose (OR = 2.6 (1.7, 4.1)) and fasting serum triglyceride (OR = 2.8 (1.8, 4.4)) in women. A logit model has enabled the calculation of the probability of developing diabetes 20 years later. It was the characteristics of becoming older such as obesity, hypertriglyceridaemia, and raised fasting blood glucose, rather than age itself, which were associated with the development of diabetes.