Chapter 1. Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement

  1. Anthony O'Hagan1,
  2. Caitlin E. Buck1,
  3. Alireza Daneshkhah1,
  4. J. Richard Eiser1,
  5. Paul H. Garthwaite2,
  6. David J. Jenkinson2,
  7. Jeremy E. Oakley1 and
  8. Tim Rakow3

Published Online: 19 OCT 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312.ch1

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

How to Cite

O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement, in Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470033312.ch1

Author Information

  1. 1

    University of Sheffield, UK

  2. 2

    The Open University, UK

  3. 3

    University of Essex, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 19 OCT 2006
  2. Published Print: 21 JUL 2006

Book Series:

  1. Statistics in Practice

Book Series Editors:

  1. Stephen Senn4,
  2. Marian Scott4 and
  3. Peter Bloomfield5

Series Editor Information

  1. 4

    University of Glasgow, UK

  2. 5

    North Carolina State University, USA

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319



  • probability and judgements of probability;
  • probability and elicitation;
  • probability and judgement fundamentals;
  • Multiplication Law of probabilities;
  • Pearson correlation coefficient;
  • elicitation and judgement psychology;
  • Frequency probability;
  • aleatory and epistemic uncertainty


This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • Probability and elicitation

  • Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability

  • Elicitation and the psychology of judgement

  • Of what use are such judgements?

  • Conclusions