Chapter 10. Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion

  1. Anthony O'Hagan1,
  2. Caitlin E. Buck1,
  3. Alireza Daneshkhah1,
  4. J. Richard Eiser1,
  5. Paul H. Garthwaite2,
  6. David J. Jenkinson2,
  7. Jeremy E. Oakley1 and
  8. Tim Rakow3

Published Online: 19 OCT 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312.ch10

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

How to Cite

O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion, in Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470033312.ch10

Author Information

  1. 1

    University of Sheffield, UK

  2. 2

    The Open University, UK

  3. 3

    University of Essex, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 19 OCT 2006
  2. Published Print: 21 JUL 2006

Book Series:

  1. Statistics in Practice

Book Series Editors:

  1. Stephen Senn4,
  2. Marian Scott4 and
  3. Peter Bloomfield5

Series Editor Information

  1. 4

    University of Glasgow, UK

  2. 5

    North Carolina State University, USA

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319



  • subjective probability elicitation;
  • formal elicitation of expert opinion;
  • receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves;
  • probability elicitation in medical diagnosis;
  • subjective probability and pulmonary embolism (PE);
  • Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) probabilities;
  • subjective probabilities of survival use;
  • elicited probabilities in nuclear industry


This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Some applications

  • An example of an elicitation interview – eliciting engine sales

  • Medicine

  • The nuclear industry

  • Veterinary science

  • Agriculture

  • Meteorology

  • Business studies, economics and finance

  • Other professions

  • Other examples of the elicitation of subjective probabilities