Chapter 3. The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty

  1. Anthony O'Hagan1,
  2. Caitlin E. Buck1,
  3. Alireza Daneshkhah1,
  4. J. Richard Eiser1,
  5. Paul H. Garthwaite2,
  6. David J. Jenkinson2,
  7. Jeremy E. Oakley1 and
  8. Tim Rakow3

Published Online: 19 OCT 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312.ch3

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

How to Cite

O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty, in Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470033312.ch3

Author Information

  1. 1

    University of Sheffield, UK

  2. 2

    The Open University, UK

  3. 3

    University of Essex, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 19 OCT 2006
  2. Published Print: 21 JUL 2006

Book Series:

  1. Statistics in Practice

Book Series Editors:

  1. Stephen Senn4,
  2. Marian Scott4 and
  3. Peter Bloomfield5

Series Editor Information

  1. 4

    University of Glasgow, UK

  2. 5

    North Carolina State University, USA

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319



  • psychology of judgement under uncertainty;
  • understanding task and expert;
  • constructive processes;
  • understanding research on human judgement;
  • Bayesian statistics and subjective probability;
  • heuristics and biases research programme;
  • representativeness heuristic;
  • conjunction fallacy;
  • anchor-and-adjustment heuristic;
  • support theory and unpacking principle


This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • Understanding the task and the expert

  • Understanding research on human judgement

  • The heuristics and biases research programme

  • Experts and expertise

  • Three meta-theories of judgement

  • Conclusions