Chapter 4. The Elicitation of Probabilities

  1. Anthony O'Hagan1,
  2. Caitlin E. Buck1,
  3. Alireza Daneshkhah1,
  4. J. Richard Eiser1,
  5. Paul H. Garthwaite2,
  6. David J. Jenkinson2,
  7. Jeremy E. Oakley1 and
  8. Tim Rakow3

Published Online: 19 OCT 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312.ch4

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

How to Cite

O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) The Elicitation of Probabilities, in Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470033312.ch4

Author Information

  1. 1

    University of Sheffield, UK

  2. 2

    The Open University, UK

  3. 3

    University of Essex, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 19 OCT 2006
  2. Published Print: 21 JUL 2006

Book Series:

  1. Statistics in Practice

Book Series Editors:

  1. Stephen Senn4,
  2. Marian Scott4 and
  3. Peter Bloomfield5

Series Editor Information

  1. 4

    University of Glasgow, UK

  2. 5

    North Carolina State University, USA

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319

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Keywords:

  • elicitation of probabilities;
  • calibration of subjective probabilities;
  • over/under-confidence, over-extremity and discrimination;
  • elicitation of probabilities;
  • doctors' probability judgement;
  • value biasing;
  • representations and methods;
  • debiasing;
  • quantitative judgements under uncertainty

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • The calibration of subjective probabilities

  • The calibration of subjective probabilities: theories and explanations

  • Representations and methods

  • Debiasing

  • Conclusions