Chapter 8. Evaluating Elicitation

  1. Anthony O'Hagan1,
  2. Caitlin E. Buck1,
  3. Alireza Daneshkhah1,
  4. J. Richard Eiser1,
  5. Paul H. Garthwaite2,
  6. David J. Jenkinson2,
  7. Jeremy E. Oakley1,
  8. Tim Rakow3

Published Online: 19 OCT 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470033312.ch8

Book Title

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Additional Information

How to Cite

O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) Evaluating Elicitation, in Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470033312.ch8

Author Information

  1. 1

    University of Sheffield, UK

  2. 2

    The Open University, UK

  3. 3

    University of Essex, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 19 OCT 2006
  2. Published Print: 21 JUL 2006

Book Series:

  1. Statistics in Practice

Book Series Editors:

  1. Stephen Senn4,
  2. Marian Scott4,
  3. Peter Bloomfield5

Series Editor Information

  1. 4

    University of Glasgow, UK

  2. 5

    North Carolina State University, USA

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470029992

Online ISBN: 9780470033319

SEARCH

CHAPTER TOOLS

Get PDF (152K)

Keywords:

  • evaluating elicitation;
  • scoring rules;
  • linear scoring rule;
  • probability scoring rule;
  • coherence, feedback and overfitting;
  • quadratic score or Brier score;
  • elicitation method feedback

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • Scoring rules

  • Coherence, feedback and overfitting

  • Conclusions

Get PDF (152K)