Standard Article

180 Short-Term Predictions (Weather Forecasting Purposes)

Part 15. Global Hydrology

  1. George Kallos,
  2. Ioannis Pytharoulis

Published Online: 15 APR 2006

DOI: 10.1002/0470848944.hsa187

Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences

Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences

How to Cite

Kallos, G. and Pytharoulis, I. 2006. Short-Term Predictions (Weather Forecasting Purposes). Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. 15:180.

Author Information

  1. University of Athens, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group, School of Physics, Athens, Greece

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 15 APR 2006

Abstract

In recent years there is a growing need in hydrology for high-resolution precipitation predictions. Accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts at various spatiotemporal scales can be made by the atmospheric numerical models that utilize sophisticated parameterization schemes to represent the various physical processes. Two soil parameterization schemes are presented here: a) the bucket model which is a simple single-layer scheme and was the first one to be used in numerical models, and b) the multilayer Oregon State University scheme which is currently utilized in operational and research mode. A number of successful short-term predictions of severe precipitation events are also presented. These predictions were produced by various full-physics numerical models, such as the SKIRON/Eta modeling system, RAMS and the UKMO Unified model, under different forcing mechanisms. The performance of the models in representing the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is mainly discussed. In general, the atmospheric numerical models exhibited a skill in providing accurate short-term predictions of the spatiotemporal variability and severity of precipitation.

Keywords:

  • numerical modeling;
  • SKIRON/Eta;
  • RAMS;
  • HYPACT;
  • Unified Model;
  • severe precipitation events;
  • land-surface parameterizations;
  • short-term forecasts