Chapter 4. How to Assess Uncertainties and Specify Probabilities

  1. Terje Aven

Published Online: 16 JAN 2004

DOI: 10.1002/0470871245.ch4

Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective

Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective

How to Cite

Aven, T. (2003) How to Assess Uncertainties and Specify Probabilities, in Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/0470871245.ch4

Author Information

  1. University of Stavanger, Norway

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 16 JAN 2004
  2. Published Print: 17 OCT 2003

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780471495482

Online ISBN: 9780470871249

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Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • What Is a Good Probability Assignment?

    • Criteria for Evaluating Probabilities

    • Heuristics and Biases

    • Evaluation of the Assessors

    • Standardization and Consensus

  • Modelling

    • Examples of Models

    • Discussion

  • Assessing Uncertainty of Y

    • Assignments Based on Classical Statistical Methods

    • Analyst Judgements Using All Sources of Information

    • Formal Expert Elicitation

    • Bayesian Analysis

  • Uncertainty Assessments of a Vector X

    • Cost Risk

    • Production Risk

    • Reliability Analysis

  • Discussion and Conclusions

  • Bibliographic Notes