Summary of main results
In this review, we aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of transient elastography for the diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis in people with alcoholic liver disease compared with the reference standard, liver biopsy. We also attempted to identify the optimal cut-off values for the five stages of hepatic fibrosis. We identified 21 studies including participants with alcoholic liver disease of which only 14 studies with 834 participants provided data for the review analyses and hence constituted the included studies of this review. In addition to published article data, we used individual participant data obtained through correspondence with authors of seven of these studies. Participants in all 14 studies had undergone both transient elastography and liver biopsy investigations. The lack of usable data from seven out of 21 studies raised the risk of outcome reporting bias.
Study authors used a variety of different cut-off values for transient elastography in an attempt to discriminate between the stages of hepatic fibrosis. Hence, our analyses using the most common cut-off values did not allow us to establish the best cut-off values for the separate stages of hepatic fibrosis that could be recommended for clinical practice.
Detection of fibrosis F0 or F1 is of no clinical relevance as these initial hepatic fibrosis stages do not influence prognosis and if the person abstains from alcohol consumption, the fibrosis will reverse.
Transient elastography for F2 or worse
For F2 or worse with a cut-off of around 7.5 kPa, summary sensitivity was 0.94 and specificity was 0.89. Prevalence of F2 or worse was 81%. Most of the participants were alcohol abusers.
Transient elastography for F3 or worse
For F3 or worse with a cut-off of around 9.5 kPa, summary sensitivity was 0.92 and specificity was 0.70. The result suggests that transient elastography may rule out the presence of severe fibrosis, considering the prevalence of 61%.
Transient elastography for F4
For F4 with a cut-off of 12.5 kPa, summary sensitivity was 0.95 and specificity was 0.71. The result suggests that transient elastography could be useful to rule out the presence of cirrhosis following the data results of LR- and considering the prevalence of 51%. As the post-test probability becomes 7%, further testing may not be needed to rule out cirrhosis. Thus, liver biopsy could be avoided. This result was consistent with the results of the analysis considering all the studies with the different cut-off values (Figure 13) and the sensitivity analysis on the studies with time interval between liver biopsy and transient elastography less than three months (Figure 14), as the point representing the summary sensitivity and specificity (summary operating point) was close to the two hierarchical SROC curves.
Out of 1000 participants, we would identify 510 with cirrhosis, but we would miss 26 people with cirrhosis and 143 participants would be wrongly diagnosed due to transient elastography error.
Strengths and weaknesses of the review
The aims of our review were to provide pooled estimates of accuracy of transient elastography and to find the best cut-off values of transient elastography for the five stages of hepatic fibrosis in people with alcoholic liver disease.
We judged only 29% of the studies at low risk of bias. Despite the fact that all included studies were published after 2003, that is, the STARD initiative was published (www.stard-statement.org), clinically relevant information was missing. We could not investigate whether grade of inflammation, lengths of liver biopsy sample, portal tracts, grades of steatosis, severity of fibrosis, and body mass index as sources of possible heterogeneity had an impact on our results because the collected data were not sufficient for analyses.
The role of transient elastography for determining the cut-off values for differentiating the five stages of hepatic fibrosis (F0 to F4) in people diagnosed with alcoholic liver disease has not been previously validated. Therefore, this is the first diagnostic test accuracy review with meta-analyses that attempted to determine the diagnostic test accuracy thresholds for distinguishing the stages of hepatic fibrosis, focusing only on people with alcoholic liver disease and using rigorous Cochrane Collaboration methodology (SRDTA Handbook). However, due to the very few number of studies assessing mild fibrosis and the huge variation of cut-off values in studies with participants with significant or severe hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis, we could not establish the optimal cut-off values that could serve as thresholds for mild, significant, or severe fibrosis and cirrhosis.
Variation of cut-off values is the main source of heterogeneity in diagnostic studies. In addition, when studies reported accuracy estimates considering similar cut-off values, our analyses showed that some heterogeneity was still present, most probably due to differences in clinical characteristics of the participants (abstinent or not), as suggested by the variability of prevalence among the studies.
The observed heterogeneity for F4 seemed to affect mainly the specificity of transient elastography.
The small number of included studies with data for stages F2 or worse and F3 or worse, was one of the limitations of our systematic review, as we could not perform a comprehensive analysis to study the influence of potential sources of heterogeneity. Furthermore, the small number of studies might have had an effect on the reliability of the estimates obtained by the bivariate or HSROC model, especially when some sensitivity analyses were performed. In addition, in some analyses there was no evidence of heterogeneity in sensitivity, which we believe may be the main reason for the failure of convergence of the statistical model. However, we have been able to obtain accuracy estimates by fitting a model with the random effect for only specificity. Unfortunately, in some sensitivity analyses, the reason of lack of convergence of the statistical models was not identified and we were unable to provide a summary result. Hence, our findings for stages F2 or worse and F3 or worse (analyses with no more than 10 studies) might be limited by the small number of studies. As the CIs for the obtained estimates of hepatic fibrosis stages were wide, caution is needed when interpreting the results.
A strength of our review is that we managed to obtain individual patient data of people with alcoholic liver disease through correspondence with authors of seven studies. By doing this, we decreased the amount of missing information and we were able to increase the number of the included studies. Contacting Echosens® with a request for published and unpublished studies yielded a list with published studies only, so we failed at identification of any unpublished studies relevant to the review questions.
We cannot judge if lack of intention to diagnose in seven of the studies that included participants with various liver disease aetiology and the lack of information in another study would have affected the sensitivities and specificities of the transient elastography, as it was impossible to conduct such analyses.
Despite that liver biopsy is considered the reference standard, it may also present problems with its accuracy and reproducibility, which may reflect on the true estimates of the accuracy of transient elastography.
We could find only one systematic review that also included an economic evaluation assessing FibroScan® for the detection of hepatic fibrosis in people with suspected alcohol-related liver disease (Stevenson 2012). However, the authors identified only six studies to 2010 and the authors concluded that, as the number of people with suspected alcoholic liver disease was small in all the studies, the estimated sensitivities and specificities were not robust.
Only five studies reported results based on a pre-defined cut-off and it was the cut-off established for chronic hepatitis C. We were unable to define the optimal cut-off values for the stages of hepatic fibrosis in people with alcoholic liver disease, as the data that we obtained were not sufficient to perform the planned review analyses. In addition, the lack of pre-specified cut-off values in most of the included studies might have led to overestimation of the accuracy of transient elastography.
Clinicians and researchers alike will be helped by knowing the sensitivities and specificities of the most common cut-off values used for staging of hepatic fibrosis in people with alcoholic liver disease.
As transient elastography in our studies was not used as a screening or a triage test, we could not present any results in a population with a low prevalence of F3 or worse (significant hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis) or for F4 (cirrhosis alone) in people with alcoholic liver disease. For clarity, we provided two tables.
Table 3 presented post-test probabilities obtained in our review from minimum, medium, and high pre-test probabilities when LR- is 0.11 (obtained in our analyses for F3 or worse). A negative test result will convert a pre-test probability of 25%, 61%, and 88% to a post-test probability of 4%, 15%, and 45%. Hence, the use of transient elastography to diagnose people with hepatic fibrosis stage 3 or worse seems reasonable and could avoid liver biopsy testing when the pre-test probability is not high.
Table 3. Post-test probabilities (calculated in case of negative test results), starting from three pre-test probabilities for F3 or worse with a cut-off around 9.5 kPa| Pre-test probability | LR- | Post-test probability |
| 25% (minimum)* | 0.11 | 4% |
| 61% (mean)* | 0.11 | 15% |
| 88% (maximum)* | 0.11 | 45% |
Table 4 presented post-test probabilities obtained in our review from minimum, medium, and high pre-test probabilities for hepatic cirrhosis (F4) with most common cut-off of 12.5 kPa when the LR- is 0.07. A negative test result will convert a pre-test probability of 15%, 51%, and 79% to a post-test probability of 1%, 7%, and 21%. Hence, the use of transient elastography to diagnose people with F4 seems reasonable and could avoid liver biopsy testing when the pre-test probability is not high.
Table 4. Post-test probabilities (calculated in case of negative test results), starting from three pre-test probabilities for F4 with most common cut-off of 12.5 kPa| Pre-test probability | LR- | Post-test probability |
| 15% (minimum)* | 0.07 | 1% |
| 51% (mean)* | 0.07 | 7% |
| 79% (maximum)* | 0.07 | 21% |
The results of our review confirm that transient elastography is an accurate test for differentiating the different stages of hepatic fibrosis, also in the subgroup of people with alcoholic liver disease.
The high prevalence of significant or severe fibrosis and cirrhosis found in the included studies has some consequences on the clinical usefulness of transient elastography, as such scenarios are not often encountered in clinical practice. When the pre-test probability of cirrhosis is too high, clinicians should reconsider testing with transient elastography, as it is unlikely to add any further relevant information to the clinical diagnosis of cirrhosis. The more likely reason for the high prevalence is in the aetiology of the liver disease. People with alcoholic liver disease visit clinicians when they are at a more advanced stage of hepatic fibrosis than people diagnosed with other aetiologies of liver diseases. An advanced stage of hepatic fibrosis, severe or worse, is easily recognised by clinicians, which may limit the clinical utility of transient elastography test in people with alcoholic liver disease.
We assessed transient elastography in people who had liver index test conducted before, close to, or after the conduct of the reference standard, liver biopsy. As any post-liver biopsy intrahepatic bleeding may have affected the results of a following transient elastography, this sequence of tests may have affected our results.
Applicability of findings to the review question
The aims of our review were to provide pooled estimates of diagnostic accuracy performance of transient elastography with regard to the five stages of hepatic fibrosis in people with alcoholic liver disease and their differentiation by finding the optimal cut-off values for each stage of hepatic fibrosis.
Despite the fact that we could not establish the best cut-off values for differentiating the hepatic fibrosis stages, we judged that our review findings raise small applicability concerns defined through judgement of the three QUADAS-2 applicability domains: participant selection, index test, and reference standard.
The included participants were people with alcoholic liver disease, from various settings, and having different stages of hepatic fibrosis. We found a large variance of prevalence of the different stages of hepatic fibrosis across the studies, but we believe that this does not affect the applicability of our findings.
Transient elastography investigations were performed as prescribed by the manufacturers and as usually performed and reported in clinical practice.
Liver biopsy was performed following the clinical guideline for liver biopsy investigation and morphological results were estimated by the most often used semi-quantitative morphological scores.