Multicycle ensemble forecasting of sea surface temperature

Authors

  • Gary B. Brassington

    Corresponding author
    1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, New South Whales, Australia
    • Corresponding author: G. B. Brassington, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 413, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW 1300, Australia. (g.brassington@bom.gov.au)

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Abstract

[1] A novel extension to time-lagged ensemble forecasting called multicycle ensemble forecasting improves the independent sampling of forecast model errors. Multicycle is defined such that each forecast cycle is independent of the previous forecast cycle. For an M cycle system the background field for each cycle is from a model hindcast M cycles earlier. The model errors have a factor M longer period to grow compared with a sequential system; however, the increased independence in the forecast model errors provide weighted ensemble averages with greater skill and reliability over the 0 lag forecast and a good spread-error relationship. This cost-efficient technique is relevant to global ocean forecasting where an ensemble method is computationally prohibitive.

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