NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
Article first published online: 24 OCT 2013
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Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 20, pages 5497–5502, 28 October 2013
How to Cite
2013), NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5497–5502, doi:10.1002/2013GL057877., , and (
- Issue published online: 18 NOV 2013
- Article first published online: 24 OCT 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 11 OCT 2013 10:38PM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 9 OCT 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 7 OCT 2013
- Manuscript Received: 5 SEP 2013
- North Atlantic Oscillation;
- Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature;
- multidecadal variability;
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
 The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.