Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations
Article first published online: 2 DEC 2013
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 23, pages 6208–6212, 16 December 2013
How to Cite
2013), Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6208–6212, doi:10.1002/2013GL058161.(
- Issue published online: 30 DEC 2013
- Article first published online: 2 DEC 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 8 NOV 2013 05:13PM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 2 NOV 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 28 OCT 2013
- Manuscript Received: 1 OCT 2013
- Office of Naval Research. Grant Number: N00014-11-1-0611
 Increasing attention is being paid to extreme weather, including recent high-profile events involving very destructive cyclones. In summer 2012, a historically powerful cyclone traversed the Arctic, a region experiencing rapid warming and dramatic loss of ice and snow cover. This study addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated extreme Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850–2005) among global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. These general circulation models are able to simulate extreme pressures associated with strong polar storms without a significant dependence on model resolution. The models display realism by generating extreme Arctic storms primarily around subpolar cyclone regions (Aleutian and Icelandic) and preferentially during winter. Simulated secular trends in Arctic mean sea level pressure and extreme cyclones are equivocal; both indicate increasing storminess in some regions, but the magnitude of changes to date are modest compared with future projections.