Evaluating Arctic sea ice predictions

Authors


Abstract

Climate models predict that as Earth's climate warms, summer Arctic sea ice cover will be more variable in coming years until the ocean eventually becomes ice free in the summer. Predictions of ice extent at weekly to seasonal time scales would be valuable for coastal communities, for those who need marine access, and for resource extraction. However, such predictions tend to be poor in years when sea ice extent is unusually high or low relative to its long-term downward trend, according to a new study by Stroeve et al.