Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases
Published Online: 14 JAN 2011
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science
How to Cite
Mihajlovits, B. H. and Merrick, J. R. W. 2011. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. .
- Published Online: 14 JAN 2011
Thinking in terms of probabilities is not easy and we tend to use rather primitive cognitive techniques to make such assessments. These techniques are called heuristics. Heuristics are simple and intuitive but tend to result in probabilities that are biased. This article reviews the problems associated with probability elicitation and methods for improving such assessments.
- minimizing biases;
- probability elicitation;
- probability judgments;
- heuristics and biases;