Standard Article

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases

  1. Bethany H. Mihajlovits,
  2. Jason R. W. Merrick

Published Online: 14 JAN 2011

DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0292

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

How to Cite

Mihajlovits, B. H. and Merrick, J. R. W. 2011. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. .

Author Information

  1. Virginia Commonwealth University, Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Richmond, Virginia

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 14 JAN 2011

Abstract

Thinking in terms of probabilities is not easy and we tend to use rather primitive cognitive techniques to make such assessments. These techniques are called heuristics. Heuristics are simple and intuitive but tend to result in probabilities that are biased. This article reviews the problems associated with probability elicitation and methods for improving such assessments.

Keywords:

  • minimizing biases;
  • probability elicitation;
  • probability judgments;
  • heuristics and biases;
  • decomposition