Standard Article

Subjective Probability

  1. Nabil I. Al-Najjar,
  2. Luciano de Castro

Published Online: 15 FEB 2011

DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0849

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

How to Cite

Al-Najjar, N. I. and de Castro, L. 2011. Subjective Probability. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. .

Author Information

  1. Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences, Evanston, Illinois

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 15 FEB 2011

Abstract

We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage's theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence.

Keywords:

  • subjective probability;
  • Savage's theory;
  • sure thing principle;
  • rationality