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Appendix B: The Most Risk, or Maximum Likelihood, for the Outcome (Failure or Error) Rate while Learning

  1. Dr. Romney B. Duffey BSc, PhD, FASME scientist manager speaker Principal Scientist ASME Fellow past Chair active member1 and
  2. John W. Saull CEng, FRAeS, DAE aviation regulator executive director head member chairman2

Published Online: 31 OCT 2008

DOI: 10.1002/9780470714461.app2

Managing Risk: The Human Element

Managing Risk: The Human Element

How to Cite

Duffey, R. B. and Saull, J. W. (2008) Appendix B: The Most Risk, or Maximum Likelihood, for the Outcome (Failure or Error) Rate while Learning, in Managing Risk: The Human Element, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9780470714461.app2

Author Information

  1. 1

    Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL), Canada

  2. 2

    International Federation of Airworthiness (IFA), UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 31 OCT 2008
  2. Published Print: 24 OCT 2008

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470699768

Online ISBN: 9780470714461

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Summary

This appendix contains sections titled:

  • The Most or Least Likely Outcome Rate

  • The Maximum and Minimum Risk: The Two Solutions

  • Low Rates and Rare Events

  • The Limits of Maximum and Minimum Risk: The Two Solutions

  • Common Sense: The Most Risk at the Least Experience and the Least Risk as the First Outcome Decreases with Experience

  • Typical Trends in Our Most Likely Risk

  • The Distribution with Depth of Experience

  • References