Predicting Rocket Risks and Refinery Explosions: Near Misses, Shuttle Safety and Anti-Missile Defence Systems Effectiveness

  1. Dr. Romney B. Duffey BSc, PhD, FASME scientist manager speaker Principal Scientist ASME Fellow past Chair active member1 and
  2. John W. Saull CEng, FRAeS, DAE aviation regulator executive director head member chairman2

Published Online: 31 OCT 2008

DOI: 10.1002/9780470714461.ch3

Managing Risk: The Human Element

Managing Risk: The Human Element

How to Cite

Duffey, R. B. and Saull, J. W. (2008) Predicting Rocket Risks and Refinery Explosions: Near Misses, Shuttle Safety and Anti-Missile Defence Systems Effectiveness, in Managing Risk: The Human Element, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9780470714461.ch3

Author Information

  1. 1

    Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL), Canada

  2. 2

    International Federation of Airworthiness (IFA), UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 31 OCT 2008
  2. Published Print: 24 OCT 2008

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470699768

Online ISBN: 9780470714461

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Keywords:

  • predicting rocket risks and refinery explosions;
  • estimating possible range likelihoods;
  • learning hypothesis and MERE;
  • MERE risk ratio and NASA maturity law;
  • launching missile risk;
  • National Missile Defence (NMD) mid-course program;
  • overall uncertainty estimate;
  • Industrial accidents and predicting risks

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Learning from Near Misses and Prior Knowledge

  • Problems in Quantifying Risk: Predicting the Risk for the Next Shuttle Mission

  • Estimating a Possible Range of Likelihoods

  • Learning from Experience: Maturity Models for Future Space Mission Risk

  • Technology versus Technology

  • Missiles Risks over London: The German Doodlebug

  • Launching Missile Risk

  • The Number of Tests Required

  • Estimating the Risk of a Successful Attack and How Many Missiles We Must Fire

  • Uncertainty in the Risk of Failing to Intercept

  • What Risk Is There of a Missile Getting Through: Missing the Missile

  • Predicting the Risk of Industrial Accidents: The Texas City Refinery Explosion

  • From Lagging to Leading: Safety Analysis and Safety Culture

  • Missing Near Misses

  • What these Risk Estimates Tell Us: The Common Sense Echo

  • References