Chapter 14. Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty and Complexity

  1. Derek J. Koehler and
  2. Nigel Harvey
  1. Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Published Online: 14 JAN 2008

DOI: 10.1002/9780470752937.ch14

Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

How to Cite

Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2004) Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty and Complexity, in Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (eds D. J. Koehler and N. Harvey), Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Malden, MA, USA. doi: 10.1002/9780470752937.ch14

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 14 JAN 2008
  2. Published Print: 1 JAN 2004

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9781405107464

Online ISBN: 9780470752937

SEARCH

Keywords:

  • forecasting;
  • complexity;
  • correlations;
  • simulation;
  • prediction

Summary

This chapter contains section titled:

  • Introduction

  • The Challenge of Uncertainty1

  • The Challenge of Complexity

  • Selected Research Findings

  • Tools to Improve Prediction

  • Scenario Planning5

  • How to Develop Scenarios

  • Some Limitations of Scenario Planning

  • Summary