Chapter 1. Predicting the Socio-Technical Future (and Other Myths)

  1. Paul Warren Theoretical Physics, MSc in Electronics Project Director,
  2. Dr John Davies chairman Fellow Chartered Engineer Group Technical Advisor and
  3. David Brown BSc in Mathematics, MSc in Economics Head systems engineer Sloan Fellowship
  1. Ben Anderson1 and
  2. Paul Stoneman2

Published Online: 8 APR 2008

DOI: 10.1002/9780470758656.ch1

ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-Time and Secure Services

ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-Time and Secure Services

How to Cite

Anderson, B. and Stoneman, P. (2008) Predicting the Socio-Technical Future (and Other Myths), in ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-Time and Secure Services (eds P. Warren, J. Davies and D. Brown), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9780470758656.ch1

Editor Information

  1. BT, UK

Author Information

  1. 1

    Technology and Social Change Research Centre, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK

  2. 2

    Chimera Institute, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 8 APR 2008
  2. Published Print: 11 APR 2008

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470997703

Online ISBN: 9780470758656

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Keywords:

  • information communication technologies (ICTs) - ‘social implications’;
  • snooker ball model;
  • conditional positive internet effects;
  • evolutionary system model;
  • people and technology;
  • socio-technical futures;
  • adaptive revenue models;
  • user-informed innovation process

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • Implicit Predictions

  • Socio-technical Futures

  • The Snooker Ball Model

  • The Conditional and Co-adaption Model

  • Feedback Mechanisms and the Evolutionary Model

  • Implications for Forward Thinking

  • Acknowledgements

  • References