7. Scenario Building and Uncertainties: Options for Energy Sources

  1. Adisa Azapagic and
  2. Slobodan Perdan
  1. Richard Darton

Published Online: 15 DEC 2010

DOI: 10.1002/9780470972847.ch7

Sustainable Development in Practice: Case Studies for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition

Sustainable Development in Practice: Case Studies for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition

How to Cite

Darton, R. (2010) Scenario Building and Uncertainties: Options for Energy Sources, in Sustainable Development in Practice: Case Studies for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition (eds A. Azapagic and S. Perdan), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9780470972847.ch7

Editor Information

  1. School of Chemical Engineering and Analytical Science, The University of Manchester, UK

Author Information

  1. Keble College, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3PG, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 15 DEC 2010
  2. Published Print: 15 DEC 2010

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470718711

Online ISBN: 9780470972847

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Keywords:

  • scenario building and uncertainties - options for energy sources;
  • concept of sustainability, challenging us to think about the future - not in a vague inquisitive way;
  • complex systems, bemodelled - governments using models of economy to forecast important features;
  • general problem of formulating a strategy - making decisions and inaugurating actions, in the present;
  • competition, provided by local supermarkets - undercutting prices;
  • uncertainty and importance of strategy factors - combination of importance and uncertainty;
  • scenario approach - forecasts and scenarios compared;
  • targeting key strategy factors;
  • shop-owner scenarios - influence on key strategy factors;
  • different energy scenarios - for sustainable development

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Sustainability and the Need to Look Ahead

  • Thinking about the Future

  • General Approach to Formulating Strategies

  • Dealing with Uncertainty: The Scenario Approach

  • Energy Scenarios: Glimpsing the Future?

  • Implications of Different Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development

  • Conclusions

  • References and Further Reading