Chapter 7. Bayesian Estimation of Migration Flows

  1. James Raymer3 and
  2. Frans Willekens4
  1. Matthew J. Brierley1,
  2. Jonathan J. Forster1,
  3. John W. McDonald2 and
  4. Peter W. F. Smith3

Published Online: 20 FEB 2008

DOI: 10.1002/9780470985557.ch7

International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates

International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates

How to Cite

Brierley, M. J., Forster, J. J., McDonald, J. W. and Smith, P. W. F. (2007) Bayesian Estimation of Migration Flows, in International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates (eds J. Raymer and F. Willekens), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9780470985557.ch7

Editor Information

  1. 3

    Division of Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

  2. 4

    Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, PO Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands

Author Information

  1. 1

    School of Mathematics, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

  2. 2

    Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, University of London, 20 Bedford Way, London, WC1H 0AL, UK

  3. 3

    Division of Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 20 FEB 2008
  2. Published Print: 15 FEB 2007

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9780470032336

Online ISBN: 9780470985557

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Keywords:

  • origin–destination flow table;
  • expected migration flows;
  • migration flow matrix;
  • iterative proportional fitting (IPF) algorithm;
  • bimodal densities;
  • migrant definitions and collection methods;
  • immigration and emigration totals;
  • full migration flow table

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • A modelling framework

  • Results of the initial simulation

  • Adding noise to the observations

  • Introducing a contiguity parameter

  • Northern European migration

  • Conclusion

  • References