23. Reflections on the Relevance of History in a Nonstationary World

  1. John A. Wiens2,3,
  2. Gregory D. Hayward4,5,
  3. Hugh D. Safford6,7 and
  4. Catherine M. Giffen8
  1. Julio L. Betancourt

Published Online: 8 JUL 2012

DOI: 10.1002/9781118329726.ch23

Historical Environmental Variation in Conservation and Natural Resource Management

Historical Environmental Variation in Conservation and Natural Resource Management

How to Cite

Betancourt, J. L. (2012) Reflections on the Relevance of History in a Nonstationary World, in Historical Environmental Variation in Conservation and Natural Resource Management (eds J. A. Wiens, G. D. Hayward, H. D. Safford and C. M. Giffen), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi: 10.1002/9781118329726.ch23

Editor Information

  1. 2

    PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA

  2. 3

    School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 2006, Australia

  3. 4

    USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region, 3301 C Street, Anchorage, AK 99504, USA

  4. 5

    USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Lakewood, CO 80401, USA

  5. 6

    USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, Vallejo, CA 94592, USA

  6. 7

    Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA

  7. 8

    USDA Forest Service, National Office Washington, DC, USA

Author Information

  1. US Geological Survey National Research Program Water Resources Division, 1955 E. 6th St. Tucson, AZ 85719, USA

Publication History

  1. Published Online: 8 JUL 2012
  2. Published Print: 10 AUG 2012

ISBN Information

Print ISBN: 9781444337921

Online ISBN: 9781118329726

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Keywords:

  • nonstationary world, and relevance of history;
  • HRV and HS, compromised by global change;
  • forecasting species' adjustment, conservation and biodiversity;
  • bioclimatic models' shortcomings, spatiotemporal;
  • bioclimatic models, targeting morphological species;
  • ecological synchrony, and ecological forecasting;
  • climate change, spatial/temporal scales of synchrony;
  • ecological responses to climate/land-use, slow and fast;
  • hydrological nonstationary, and existing stream gauges;
  • baselines in a changing world, reference network identification

Summary

This chapter contains sections titled:

  • Introduction

  • Forecasting Species Movements in the Near Term: Lessons from the Holocene in the Western United States

  • Ecological Synchrony and its Importance for Ecological Forecasting

  • Examples of Successful and Perhaps Outdated Historical Frameworks: HRV and HS

  • Managing Ecosystems Under an Unpredictable and Continuously Changing Climate

  • Refocusing the Acquisition and Application of Historical Evidence to Serve an Uncertain and Complicated Future

  • References