Part 5. Product Innovation and Management
Published Online: 15 DEC 2010
Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing
How to Cite
Gruca, T. S. 2010. Prediction Markets. Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing. 5.
- Published Online: 15 DEC 2010
A prediction market is a market-based method for aggregating disparate sources of public and private information about future events. Prediction markets have been generating highly accurate forecasts of election outcomes for more than 20 years. More recently, prediction markets have been successfully used to forecast product sales and new movie box office revenues. Some challenges to using prediction markets include identifying appropriate traders and motivating traders (e.g., due to regulations on futures trading). Similar market-based methods have been developed for preference measurement and new-product idea generation and evaluation.
- collective intelligence;
- sales forecasting;
- new-product forecasting;
- preference measurement;
- concept testing