In this article, we consider the impact of European Union (EU) export subsidy reductions on the U.S. dairy trade. We assume reductions of 36% similar to the 1995 World Trade Organization agreement. The price substitutability between U.S. and EU dairy products is estimated using a Rotterdam-type production model. Past analyses have suggested that EU export subsidy reductions will increase U.S. dairy exports because the removal of EU subsidies will raise EU export dairy prices, rendering U.S. dairy products more competitive on world markets. This is partially true for nonfat dry milk, where our projections indicate an increase of 4.6% in U.S. exports. U.S. cheese, butter, and whey exports, on the other hand, rise by only 0.2, 0.1, and 0.2%, respectively. The main reason for the relatively modest gains is that the U.S. and EU dairy products are independent, not substitutes, for one another in a majority of the countries studied. [JEL classifications: Q17, Q18, F53] © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.