Price Risk and Exporter Competition in China's Soybean Market


  • The views expressed are those of the authors, and may not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

  • Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1800 M Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20036.


An import allocation model is used to examine the effects of price risk (variance of prices) on exporter competition in China's soybean market. Price risk is an important determinant of China's soybean imports across sources (Argentina, Brazil, and the United States), even when accounting for other factors. Results indicate that Argentina is the only country affected by own-price risk in the Chinese market; imports decline by 1.11% for every percentage increase price risk. The estimated risk premium for soybeans from Argentina is 0.44, indicating that if price risk increases by 1%, prices would have to fall by 0.44% for imports to remain unchanged. Price risk in Argentina has a positive effect on China's imports from the United States. Price risk in Brazil has a positive effect on imports from Argentina, but a negative effect on imports from the United States. [EconLit citations: D81, F14, Q11, Q17].