• robust probabilistic principal component analysis;
  • Mixture model;
  • Maximum likelihood;
  • Robust process modeling;
  • Outliers and missing data

In this article, a robust modeling strategy for mixture probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is proposed. Different from the traditional Gaussian distribution driven model such as PPCA, the multivariate student t-distribution is adopted for probabilistic modeling to reduce the negative effect of outliers, which is very common in the process industry. Furthermore, for handling the missing data problem, a partially updating algorithm is developed for parameter learning in the robust mixture PPCA model. Therefore, the new robust model can simultaneously deal with outliers and missing data. For process monitoring, a Bayesian soft decision fusion strategy is developed which is combined with the robust local monitoring models under different operating conditions. Two case studies demonstrate that the new robust model shows enhanced modeling and monitoring performance in both outlier and missing data cases, compared to the mixture probabilistic principal analysis model. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 60: 2143–2157, 2014