Osteoarthritis

You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article

Lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis†

  1. Louise Murphy1,*,
  2. Todd A. Schwartz2,
  3. Charles G. Helmick3,
  4. Jordan B. Renner2,
  5. Gail Tudor4,
  6. Gary Koch2,
  7. Anca Dragomir5,
  8. William D. Kalsbeek2,
  9. Gheorghe Luta6,
  10. Joanne M. Jordan2

Article first published online: 29 AUG 2008

DOI: 10.1002/art.24021

Issue

Arthritis Care & Research

Arthritis Care & Research

Volume 59, Issue 9, pages 1207–1213, 15 September 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Murphy, L., Schwartz, T. A., Helmick, C. G., Renner, J. B., Tudor, G., Koch, G., Dragomir, A., Kalsbeek, W. D., Luta, G. and Jordan, J. M. (2008), Lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. Arthritis & Rheumatism, 59: 1207–1213. doi: 10.1002/art.24021

Author Information

  1. 1

    Business Computer Applications, Atlanta, Georgia

  2. 2

    University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

  3. 3

    CDC, Atlanta, Georgia

  4. 4

    Huston College, Bangor, Maine

  5. 5

    National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, NIH, Bethesda, Maryland

  6. 6

    Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC

*Arthritis Program, Division of Adult and Community Health, CDC, 4770 Buford Highway NW, Mailstop K-51, Atlanta, GA 30341

  1. †

    The findings and conclusions in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 29 AUG 2008
  2. Article first published online: 29 AUG 2008
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 16 MAY 2008
  4. Manuscript Received: 3 JAN 2007

SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

ARTICLE TOOLS

View Full Article with Supporting Information (HTML) Get PDF (94K)

Abstract

Objective

To estimate the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), overall and stratified by sex, race, education, history of knee injury, and body mass index (BMI).

Methods

The lifetime risk of symptomatic OA in at least 1 knee was estimated from logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations among 3,068 participants of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a longitudinal study of black and white women and men age ≥45 years living in rural North Carolina. Radiographic, sociodemographic, and symptomatic knee data measured at baseline (1990–1997) and first followup (1999–2003) were analyzed.

Results

The lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA was 44.7% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 40.0–49.3%). Cohort members with history of a knee injury had a lifetime risk of 56.8% (95% CI 48.4–65.2%). Lifetime risk rose with increasing BMI, with a risk of 2 in 3 among those who were obese.

Conclusion

Nearly half of the adults in Johnston County will develop symptomatic knee OA by age 85 years, with lifetime risk highest among obese persons. These current high risks in Johnston County may suggest similar risks in the general US population, especially given the increase in 2 major risk factors for knee OA, aging, and obesity. This underscores the immediate need for greater use of clinical and public health interventions, especially those that address weight loss and self-management, to reduce the impact of having knee OA.

View Full Article with Supporting Information (HTML) Get PDF (94K)