Special Issue Article – HEPEX Workshop: Stresa, Italy, June 2007

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Error-correction methods and evaluation of an ensemble based hydrological forecasting system for the Upper Danube catchment

  1. K. Bogner*,
  2. M. Kalas

Article first published online: 30 APR 2008

DOI: 10.1002/asl.180

Issue

Atmospheric Science Letters

Atmospheric Science Letters

Special Issue: HEPEX Workshop: Stresa, Italy, June 2007

Volume 9, Issue 2, pages 95–102, April/June 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Bogner, K. and Kalas, M. (2008), Error-correction methods and evaluation of an ensemble based hydrological forecasting system for the Upper Danube catchment. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 9: 95–102. doi: 10.1002/asl.180

Author Information

  1. Joint Research Centre, Weather Driven Natural Hazards, Italy

*Joint Research Centre, Weather Driven Natural Hazards, Italy.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 10 JUN 2008
  2. Article first published online: 30 APR 2008
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 14 MAR 2008
  4. Manuscript Revised: 12 MAR 2008
  5. Manuscript Received: 11 JAN 2008

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Keywords:

  • flood forecasting;
  • ensemble prediction system;
  • bias correction;
  • wavelet;
  • Kalman filter

Abstract

Within the EU Project PREVention, Information and Early Warning (PREVIEW), ensembles of discharge series have been generated for the Danube catchment by the use of various weather forecast products. Hydrological models applied for streamflow prediction often have simulation errors that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. Therefore, error-correction methods have been tested for adjusting the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows. This article presents first results of the combination of state-space models and wavelet transformations in order to update errors between the simulated (forecasted) and the observed discharge. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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