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How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

  1. Suraje Dessai1,2,3,*,
  2. Mike Hulme2,3

Article first published online: 23 OCT 2008

DOI: 10.1002/asl.197

Issue

Atmospheric Science Letters

Atmospheric Science Letters

Volume 9, Issue 4, pages 189–195, October/December 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Dessai, S. and Hulme, M. (2008), How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 9: 189–195. doi: 10.1002/asl.197

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

  2. 2

    School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

  3. 3

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

*Department of Geography, School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 10 DEC 2008
  2. Article first published online: 23 OCT 2008
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 29 AUG 2008
  4. Manuscript Revised: 13 AUG 2008
  5. Manuscript Received: 1 APR 2008

Funded by

  • Tyndall Centre core contract
  • NERC, EPSRC and ESRC
  • EPSRC
  • Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling' (EP/E018173/1)

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Keywords:

  • climate scenarios;
  • observations;
  • UK;
  • verification;
  • CET;
  • EWP

Abstract

National climate scenarios are increasingly being used in long-term strategic planning and decision-making, but their projections have rarely been compared with observations. Recent changes in seasonal Central England temperature (CET) and England and Wales precipitation are compared with the projections of four generations of UK climate scenarios. It is shown that from 1961–1990 to 1978–2007 CET has been warming faster than represented in most of the scenario projections, particularly in summer. For precipitation, the scenarios have correctly represented the sign of the observed change for most of the period, the greatest ambiguity occurring in summer. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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