• Open Access

Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Authors

  • A. G. Turner,

    Corresponding author
    1. NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, UK
    • Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, RG6 6BB, UK.
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  • J. M. Slingo

    1. NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, UK
    2. Met Office, Exeter, UK
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    • The contribution of J. M. Slingo was written in the course of her employment at the Met Office, UK and is published with the permission of the controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.


Abstract

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

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