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Keywords:

  • ensembles;
  • hydrological forecasting;
  • probabilistic verification;
  • uncertainty

Abstract

This paper presents a strategy for diagnostic verification of hydrologic ensembles, based on the selection of summary verification metrics (which could be extended to more detailed metrics) and the analysis of the relative contribution of the different sources of error. Such diagnostic verification could be conducted with the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) and is illustrated with a verification case study of experimental precipitation and streamflow ensemble reforecasts over a 24-year period. The EVS is proposed as a flexible and modular tool for the HEPEX verification test-bed to evaluate existing and emerging verification methods that are appropriate for hydrologic applications. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.