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Research Article
Panel and multivariate methods for tests of trend equivalence in climate data series
Article first published online: 17 SEP 2010
DOI: 10.1002/asl.290
Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
1530-261X/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=97f741a79c8a7dcc7deffdae9e532a8ae1e86cbb "Atmospheric Science Letters")
Additional Information
How to Cite
McKitrick, R., McIntyre, S. and Herman, C. (2010), Panel and multivariate methods for tests of trend equivalence in climate data series. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 11: 270–277. doi: 10.1002/asl.290
Publication History
- Issue published online: 6 DEC 2010
- Article first published online: 17 SEP 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 20 JUL 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 19 JUL 2010
- Manuscript Received: 24 AUG 2009
Corrigendum: Corrigendum
Vol. 12, Issue 4, 386–388, Article first published online: 7 OCT 2011
Keywords:
- trend comparisons;
- panel regression;
- tropical troposphere
Abstract
We explain panel and multivariate regressions for comparing trends in climate data sets. They impose minimal restrictions on the covariance matrix and can embed multiple linear comparisons, which is a convenience in applied work. We present applications comparing post-1979 modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical lower- and mid-troposphere. Results are sensitive to the sample length. In data spanning 1979–1999, observed trends are not significantly different from zero or from model projections. In data spanning 1979–2009, the observed trends are significant in some cases but tend to differ significantly from modeled trends. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society