• Open Access

Single-step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence

Authors

  • Peter A. Stott,

    Corresponding author
    1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    • Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
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    • The contribution of P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones and N. Christidis was written in the course of their employment at the Met Office, UK and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

  • Gareth S. Jones,

    1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
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    • The contribution of P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones and N. Christidis was written in the course of their employment at the Met Office, UK and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

  • Nikolaos Christidis,

    1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
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    • The contribution of P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones and N. Christidis was written in the course of their employment at the Met Office, UK and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

  • Francis W. Zwiers,

    1. Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
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    • The contribution of F. W. Zwiers was written in the course of their employment at Environment Canada.

  • Gabriele Hegerl,

    1. Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK
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  • Hideo Shiogama

    1. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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Abstract

Seasonal near-surface temperatures have increased in many regions of the World. Previous work has shown that this has led to rapidly increasing frequencies of very warm Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. Here we show, using a ‘single-step’ attribution framework, that increases in frequencies of very warm seasonal temperatures, not just in Northern Hemisphere summers but in other regions and seasons, can be directly attributed to human influence. In the June-August and September-November seasons, many of the sub-continental regions of Africa and Asia show robust attributable increase in the frequencies of anomalously warm seasonal temperatures. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society, Crown Copyright and Crown in the right of Canada

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