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Research Article
A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis
Article first published online: 7 NOV 2011
DOI: 10.1002/asl.365
Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
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Additional Information
How to Cite
Attanasio, A., Pasini, A. and Triacca, U. (2012), A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 13: 67–72. doi: 10.1002/asl.365
Publication History
- Issue published online: 18 JAN 2012
- Article first published online: 7 NOV 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 13 OCT 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 4 OCT 2011
- Manuscript Received: 15 SEP 2011
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- attribution;
- global warming;
- Granger causality;
- time series
Abstract
The topic of attribution of recent global warming is usually faced by studies performed through global climate models (GCMs). Even simpler econometric models have been applied to this problem, but they led to contrasting results. In this article, we show that a genuine predictive approach of Granger analysis leads to overcome problems shown by these models and to obtain a clear signal of linear Granger causality from greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the global temperature of the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, Granger causality is not evident using time series of natural forcing. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society