• detection and attribution;
  • climate change;
  • climate modelling;
  • climate prediction;
  • decadal prediction


We carry out a detection and attribution analysis of observed near-surface temperatures to 2010 and demonstrate that the signal of human influence on climate has strengthened over the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, we show that global warming is set to continue, with the second decade of the 21st century predicted to be very likely warmer than the first. Estimates of future warming rates consistent with observations of past climate change are now better constrained than they were a decade ago. The highest rates of warming previously consistent with past warming now appear to be unlikely. © 2012 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.