• Open Access

Climatic attribution at the regional scale: a case study on the role of circulation patterns and external forcings


  • Antonello Pasini,

    Corresponding author
    1. CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy
    • Correspondence to: Antonello Pasini, CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, via Salaria km 29.300, I-00015 Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy.

      E-mail: pasini@iia.cnr.it

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  • Giancarlo Modugno

    1. Department of Physics, University of Torino, Torino, Italy
    2. Soc. Coop. Servizio Meteo Nazionale arl, Bitonto, Bari, Italy
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At the regional scale, enhanced climatic variability masks the role of external forcings. It has been shown that a consistent attribution of regional temperature behaviour can be achieved just by considering circulation patterns as driving elements. Here we address this question: is the role of external forcings completely hidden in the changes of circulation patterns (eventually induced by them), or is there evidence of a more direct role for these forcings? Performing a fully nonlinear analysis shows that a direct role for anthropogenic forcings can be detected also at this regional scale, while natural forcings do not seem to influence temperature behaviour.