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Keywords:

  • oil production model;
  • oil reserves;
  • Hubbert curve;
  • field size distributions

Abstract

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.