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Research Article
Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve
Article first published online: 6 JUL 2010
DOI: 10.1002/asmb.851
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Issue
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Volume 27, Issue 4, pages 434–449, July/August 2011
Additional Information
How to Cite
Michel, B. (2011), Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve. Appl. Stochastic Models Bus. Ind., 27: 434–449. doi: 10.1002/asmb.851
Publication History
- Issue published online: 17 AUG 2011
- Article first published online: 6 JUL 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 13 MAY 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 12 MAY 2010
- Manuscript Received: 20 OCT 2008
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- oil production model;
- oil reserves;
- Hubbert curve;
- field size distributions
Abstract
The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.