Research Article

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

  1. Andreas Graefe1,*,
  2. J. Scott Armstrong2

Article first published online: 20 MAY 2012

DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1764

Additional Information

How to Cite

Graefe, A. and Armstrong, J. S. (2012), Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues. J. Behav. Decis. Making. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1764

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Communication Science and Media Research, LMU Munich, Germany

  2. 2

    The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

*Andreas Graefe, Department of Communication Science and Media Research, LMU Munich, Germany. E-mail: a.graefe@lmu.de

Publication History

  1. Article first published online: 20 MAY 2012

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Keywords:

  • forecasting;
  • index method;
  • unit weighting;
  • econometric models;
  • prediction markets;
  • elections

ABSTRACT

When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two-party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out-of-sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established quantitative models. The issue-index model has implications for political decision makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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