A re-examination of probability matching and rational choice
Article first published online: 18 MAR 2002
Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Volume 15, Issue 3, pages 233–250, July 2002
How to Cite
Shanks, D. R., Tunney, R. J. and McCarthy, J. D. (2002), A re-examination of probability matching and rational choice. J. Behav. Decis. Making, 15: 233–250. doi: 10.1002/bdm.413
- Issue published online: 1 JUL 2002
- Article first published online: 18 MAR 2002
- United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
- Leverhulme Trust
- probability matching;
In a typical probability learning task participants are presented with a repeated choice between two response alternatives, one of which has a higher payoff probability than the other. Rational choice theory requires that participants should eventually allocate all their responses to the high-payoff alternative, but previous research has found that people fail to maximize their payoffs. Instead, it is commonly observed that people match their response probabilities to the payoff probabilities. We report three experiments on this choice anomaly using a simple probability learning task in which participants were provided with (i) large financial incentives, (ii) meaningful and regular feedback, and (iii) extensive training. In each experiment large proportions of participants adopted the optimal response strategy and all three of the factors mentioned above contributed to this. The results are supportive of rational choice theory. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.