Regression to the mean and football wagers
Version of Record online: 1 AUG 2002
Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Volume 15, Issue 4, pages 329–342, October 2002
How to Cite
Lee, M. and Smith, G. (2002), Regression to the mean and football wagers. J. Behav. Decis. Making, 15: 329–342. doi: 10.1002/bdm.418
- Issue online: 27 SEP 2002
- Version of Record online: 1 AUG 2002
- Manuscript Accepted: 15 JAN 2002
- regression to mean;
- betting odds
Football performances are an imperfect measure of abilities, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. The skills of those football teams that perform the best and the worst are not really that far from average; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.