Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas
Article first published online: 2 FEB 2007
Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Volume 20, Issue 4, pages 381–403, October 2007
How to Cite
Åstebro, T. and Koehler, D. J. (2007), Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas. J. Behav. Decis. Making, 20: 381–403. doi: 10.1002/bdm.559
- Issue published online: 20 SEP 2007
- Article first published online: 2 FEB 2007
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- MINE program
- Ecole Polytechnique
- Canadian Innovation Centre
- intuitive judgment;
- case-based judgment
We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case-specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.