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Research Article
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic
Article first published online: 20 JUL 2010
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.710
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Additional Information
How to Cite
Graefe, A. and Armstrong, J. S. (2012), Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic. J. Behav. Decis. Making, 25: 41–48. doi: 10.1002/bdm.710
Publication History
- Issue published online: 6 DEC 2011
- Article first published online: 20 JUL 2010
Keywords:
- heuristics;
- take-the-best;
- election forecasting;
- voting;
- accuracy;
- Search query data;
- prediction markets;
- econometric models
Abstract
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two-party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross-validation to calculate a total of 1000 out-of-sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety-seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.