Zero-modified Poisson model: Bayesian approach, influence diagnostics, and an application to a Brazilian leptospirosis notification data

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Corresponding author: e-mail: louzada@icmc.usp.br, Phone: +55 16 3373-6614, Fax: +55 16 3371-2138

Abstract

In this paper, a Bayesian method for inference is developed for the zero-modified Poisson (ZMP) regression model. This model is very flexible for analyzing count data without requiring any information about inflation or deflation of zeros in the sample. A general class of prior densities based on an information matrix is considered for the model parameters. A sensitivity study to detect influential cases that can change the results is performed based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. Two real datasets on leptospirosis notification in Bahia State (Brazil) are analyzed using the proposed methodology for the ZMP model.

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