Order of authorship was determined alphabetically.
Special Issue Article
You have free access to this content
Bayes and Base Rates: What Is an Informative Prior for Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment?
Article first published online: 21 JAN 2013
DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2048
Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Issue

Behavioral Sciences & the Law
Special Issue: Methodological Issues in Measuring and Interpreting the Predictive Validity of Violence Risk Assessments
Volume 31, Issue 1, pages 103–124, January/February 2013
Additional Information
How to Cite
Harris, G. T. and Rice, M. E. (2013), Bayes and Base Rates: What Is an Informative Prior for Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment?. Behav. Sci. Law, 31: 103–124. doi: 10.1002/bsl.2048
Publication History
- Issue published online: 26 FEB 2013
- Article first published online: 21 JAN 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 10 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 2 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Received: 2 AUG 2012
REFERENCES
- , , , & (2006). Who wrote Ronald Reagan's radio addresses? Bayesian Analysis, 2, 289–320.doi:10.1214/06-BA110
- (2008). R. A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes' theorem. Bayesian Analysis, 3, 161–170. doi:10.1214/08-BA306
- , & (2009). Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC-99: A Bayes analysis. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 14, 187–200. doi:10.1348/135532508X330994Direct Link:
- (2011). Feeling the future. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407–425. doi: 10.1037/a0021524
- , , , & (1992). The deterrent effect of arrest in incidents of domestic violence: A Bayesian analysis of four field experiments. American Sociological Review, 57, 698–708.doi:10.2307/2095923
- (2000). In praise of epistemic irresponsibility: How lazy and ignorant can you be? Synthese, 122, 179–208. doi:10.1023/A:1005228312224
- (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571–582. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.34.7.571
- (2002). The ethics of using or not using statistical prediction rules in psychological practice and related consulting activities. Philosophy of Science, 178-184. doi: 10.1086/341844
- (2011). Bayesian versus orthodox statistics: Which side are you on? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6, 274–290. doi: 10.1177/1745691611406920
- (2013). A 250-year argument: Belief, behavior, and the bootstrap. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 50, 129–146. doi:10.1090/S0273-0979-2012-01374-5.
- (2006). When did Bayesian inference become “Bayesian”? Bayesian Analysis, 1, 1–40.doi:10.1214/06-BA101
- , & (2012). Uncertainty plus prior equals rational bias: An intuitive Bayesian probability weighting function. Psychological Review, 119, 878–887. doi: 10.10337/a0029346
- (2008). Objections to Bayesian statistics. Bayesian Analysis, 3, 445–450. doi: 10.1214/08-BA318
- , & (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684–704. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684
- (2006). Subjective Bayesian analysis: Principles and practice. Bayesian Analysis, 3, 403–420.
- (2005). Introduction to Bayesian methods 1: Measuring the strength of evidence. Clinical Trials, 2, 282–290. doi:10.1191/1740774505vn098oa
- (1980). A research scale for the assessment of psychopathy in criminal populations. Personality and Individual Differences, 1, 111–119. doi:10.1016/0191-8869(80)90028-8
- , & (2007a). Characterizing the value of actuarial violence risk assessment. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 1638–1656. doi:10.1177/0093854807307029
- , & (2007b). Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging and the passage of time. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 297–313. doi:10.1177/0093854806293486
- , , & (2004). Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 19, 1063–1074.doi:10.1177/0886260504268004
- , , & (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 377–394.doi:10.1023/A:1016347320889
- , , & (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315–335. doi:10.1177/0093854893020004001
- , , & (2010). Allegiance or fidelity? A clarifying reply. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 17, 82–89. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2850.2009.01197.xDirect Link:
- , , , , , & (2003). A multi-site comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15, 413–425. doi:10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413
- (1963). Statistics for psychologists. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
- (2011). Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20, 217–240. doi:10.1198/jcgs.2010.08162
- , , & (2009). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of hitting performance in baseball. Bayesian Analysis, 4, 631–652. doi:10.1214/09-BA424
- (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 1–53. doi:10.1017/S0140525X00041157
- , , , & (2012). Individual risk prediction model for incident cardiovascular disease: A Bayesian clinical reasoning approach. International Journal of Cardiology. doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2012.05.016
- (2012). A history of evidence in medical decisions: From the diagnostic sign to Bayesian inference. Medical Decision Making, 32, 227–231. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11434739
- (2011). The theory that would not die: How Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
- , , & (2009). A Bayesian model for estimating the effects of drug use when drug use may be under-reported. Addiction, 104, 1820–1826. doi:10.1111/j.1360-9443.2009.02644.xDirect Link:
- , & (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194–216. doi:10.1037/h0048070
- , , , & (2010). Assessment of risk for violent recidivism through multivariate Bayesian classification. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 16, 418–450. doi:10.1037/a0021312
- (2006). Another look at interpreting risk categories. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 41–63. doi:10.1177/107906320601800104
- , & (1992). Balancing risks and benefits: Another approach to optimizing diagnostic tests. Journal of Neuropsychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience, 4, 331–335. doi:10.1177/0272989X9201200303
- , , , , , … (2012). A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk. Genetic Epidemiology, 36, 71–83. doi:10.1002/gepi.21600Direct Link:
- , & (2003). A primer on Bayesian statistics in health economics and outcomes research. Sheffield, UK: University of Sheffield Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics.
- (2010). Bayesian credible intervals for binomial proportions in a single patient trial. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 19, 559–574. doi:10.1177/0962280209349008
- , , , & (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.
- , , , & (2006). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk 2nd ed. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
- , , & (1995). The actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85–105. doi:10.1177/088626095010001006
- , & (1995). Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 737–748. doi:10.1037/0022-006X.63.5.737
- , & (1997). Cross validation and extension of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide for child molesters and rapists. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 231–241. doi:10.1023/A:1024882430242
- , & (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC, Cohen's d and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615–620. doi:10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7
- , & (2012). What does it mean when age is related to recidivism among sex offenders? Manuscript submitted for publication.
- , & (in press). The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. In Hoberman H., & Phenix A. (Eds.), Sexual offenders: Diagnosis, risk assessment and management. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
- , , & (1992). Evaluation of a maximum security therapeutic community for psychopaths and other mentally disordered offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 16, 399–412. doi:10.1007/BF02352266
- , , & (2012). Validation of and revision to the Violence Risk Appraisal and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guides based on a long-term follow-up. Manuscript submitted for publication.
- , , , & (1990). Recidivism among male insanity acquittees. Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 18, 379–403. doi:10.1016/0160-2527(90)90017-W
- , , , & (2006). Violent sex offenses: How are they best measured from official records? Law and Human Behavior, 30, 525–541. doi:10.1007/s10979-006-9022-3
- , , & (1990). A follow-up of rapists assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5, 435–448. doi:10.1177/088626090005004001
- , , & (1991). Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381–386. doi:10.1037/0022-006X.59.3.381
- , & (2011). A Bayesian approach to the group versus individual prediction controversy in actuarial risk assessment. Law and Human Behavior. doi: 10.1007/s10979-011-9286-0
- , , & (2012). Naïve Bayesian classifier and genetic risk score for genetic risk prediction of a categorical trait: Not so different after all. Frontiers in Genetics, 3, 26. doi:10.3389/fgene.2012.00026
- , & (2001). Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours. Journal of Experimental Psychology. General, 130, 380–400. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.130.3.380
- , & (1987). Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The prosecutor's fallacy and the defense attorney's fallacy. Law and Human Behavior, 11, 167–187.doi:10.1007/BF01044641
- (2003). Hypothesis testing and theory evaluation at the boundaries: Surprising insights from Bayes's theorem. Psychological Review, 110, 526–535. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.110.3.526
- , & (2010). Multidimensional assessment of criminal recidivism: Problems, pitfalls, and proposed solutions. Psychological Assessment, 22, 382–395. doi:10.1037/a0019228
- , , & (1987). Violence: Criminal psychopaths and their victims. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 19, 454–462. doi:10.1037/h0080003
- (2006). Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarial are used to identify sexually violent predators. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 12, 56–85. doi: 10.1037/1076-8971.12.1.56

1099-0798/asset/BSL_left.gif?v=1&s=44de18487a735c420d1f360e33785735be2edbf3)