Presented at the Fourth Annual Academic Surgical Congress, Fort Myers, Florida, February 2009.
Results from a population-based analysis
Article first published online: 24 FEB 2010
Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society
Volume 116, Issue 9, pages 2234–2241, 1 May 2010
How to Cite
Xing, Y., Chang, G. J., Hu, C.-Y., Askew, R. L., Ross, M. I., Gershenwald, J. E., Lee, J. E., Mansfield, P. F., Lucci, A. and Cormier, J. N. (2010), Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma. Cancer, 116: 2234–2241. doi: 10.1002/cncr.24966
We would like to acknowledge Debbie Dunaway for assistance with manuscript preparation.
- Issue published online: 20 APR 2010
- Article first published online: 24 FEB 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 10 AUG 2009
- Manuscript Received: 6 AUG 2009
- conditional survival;
Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making.
Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology.
Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time.
Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. Cancer 2010. © 2010 American Cancer Society.