The first 2 authors contributed equally to this work.
Conditional survival predictions after surgery for patients with penile carcinoma
Version of Record online: 24 FEB 2011
Copyright © 2011 American Cancer Society
Volume 117, Issue 16, pages 3723–3730, 15 August 2011
How to Cite
Thuret, R., Sun, M., Abdollah, F., Schmitges, J., Shariat, S. F., Iborra, F., Guiter, J., Patard, J.-J., Perrotte, P. and Karakiewicz, P. I. (2011), Conditional survival predictions after surgery for patients with penile carcinoma. Cancer, 117: 3723–3730. doi: 10.1002/cncr.25974
- Issue online: 3 AUG 2011
- Version of Record online: 24 FEB 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 3 JAN 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 16 DEC 2010
- Manuscript Received: 22 JUL 2010
- squamous cell carcinoma;
- penile neoplasm;
- conditional survival;
- End Results (SEER) program
Conditional survival (CS) implies that, on average, long-term cancer survivors have a better prognosis than newly diagnosed individuals. The objective of the current study was to devise an accurate predictive tool that accounts for CS in men diagnosed with penile cancer.
Overall, 1245 patients treated with primary tumor excision (PTE) for pT1-3M0 squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP) between 1998 and 2006 were identified. Cox regression models were fitted for prediction of cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Nomogram development for prediction of CSM using CS methodology at 2 and 5 years was performed on 670 patients. External validation and calibration of the conditional nomogram was performed in 575 patients.
The 5-year CSM-free survival of patients at surgery was 84.3% and increased to 95.0% and 97.8% after 2 and 5 years of disease-free survival (DFS), respectively. The predicted probabilities varied by as much as 49% (57% vs 85%) when, for example, predictions of CSM-free survival at 5 years were made after PTE versus after 2 years of DFS. Within the external validation cohort, the accuracy of the conditional nomogram was 75.3% and 78.1% at 2 and 5 years after PTE.
The authors developed and externally validated the first conditional nomogram for predicting SCCP CSM-free survival that allows consideration of the length of survivorship. Cancer 2011;. © 2011 American Cancer Society.