• 1
    Siegel R, Ma J, Zou Z, Jemal A. Cancer statistics, 2014. CA Cancer J Clin. 2014;64:9-29.
  • 2
    Etzioni R, Cha R, Feuer EJ, Davidov O. Asymptomatic incidence and duration of prostate cancer. Am J Epidemiol. 1998;148:775-785.
  • 3
    Etzioni R, Gulati R, Falcon S, Penson D. Impact of PSA screening on the incidence of advanced stage prostate cancer in the US: a surveillance modeling approach. Med Decis Making. 2008;28:323-331.
  • 4
    Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. SEER*Stat Database: Mortality-All COD, Aggregated with State, Total US (1969-2010) <Katrina/Rita Population Adjustment>. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch; 2013. Underlying mortality data provided by National Center for Health Statistics (
  • 5
    Andriole GL, Crawford ED, Grubb RL 3rd; PLCO Project Team. Prostate cancer screening in the randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial: mortality results after 13 years of follow-up. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2012;104:125-132.
  • 6
    Schroder FH, Hugosson J, Roobol MJ, et al; ERSPC Investigators. Prostate-cancer mortality at 11 years of follow-up. N Engl J Med. 2012;366:981-990.
  • 7
    Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Chen S, Gore JL, Etzioni R. Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:1412-1417.
  • 8
    Hanley JA. Measuring mortality reductions in cancer screening trials. Epidemiol Rev. 2011;33:36-45.
  • 9
    Draisma G, Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, et al. Lead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009;101:374-383.
  • 10
    Sanda MG, Dunn RL, Michalski J, et al. Quality of life and satisfaction with outcome among prostate-cancer survivors. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:1250-1261.
  • 11
    Huang GJ, Sadetsky N, Penson DF. Health related quality of life for men treated for localized prostate cancer with long-term followup. J Urol. 2010;183:2206-2212.
  • 12
    Resnick MJ, Koyama T, Fan KH, et al. Long-term functional outcomes after treatment for localized prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:436-445.
  • 13
    Gulati R, Inoue LY, Gore JL, Katcher J, Etzioni R. Individualized estimates of overdiagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2014;106:djt367.
  • 14
    Moyer VA; U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Prostate Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. Ann Intern Med. 2012;157:120-134.
  • 15
    Wolf AM. American Cancer Society guideline for the early detection of prostate cancer: update 2010. CA Cancer J Clin. 2010;60:70-98.
  • 16
    Carter HB, Albertsen PC, Barry MJ, et al. Early detection of prostate cancer: AUA Guideline. J Urol. 2013;190:419-426.
  • 17
    Qaseem A, Barry MJ, Denberg TD, Owens DK, Shekelle P; Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians. Screening for prostate cancer: a guidance statement from the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians. Ann Intern Med. 2013;158:761-769.
  • 18
    Ross KS, Guess HA, Carter HB. Estimation of treatment benefits when PSA screening for prostate cancer is discontinued at different ages. Urology. 2005;66:1038-1042.
  • 19
    Schaeffer EM, Carter HB, Kettermann A, et al. Prostate specific antigen testing among the elderly–when to stop? J Urol. 2009;181:1606-1614; discussion 1613-1614.
  • 20
    Sun L, Caire AA, Robertson CN, et al. Men older than 70 years have higher risk prostate cancer and poorer survival in the early and late prostate specific antigen eras. J Urol. 2009;182:2242-2248.
  • 21
    Vickers A, Bennette C, Steineck G, et al. Individualized estimation of the benefit of radical prostatectomy from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group randomized trial. Eur Urol. 2012;62:204-209.
  • 22
    Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, et al. Quantifying the role of PSA screening in the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Cancer Causes Control. 2008;19:175-181.
  • 23
    Etzioni R, Gulati R, Tsodikov A, et al. The prostate cancer conundrum revisited: treatment changes and prostate cancer mortality declines. Cancer. 2012;118:5955-5963.
  • 24
    Tsodikov A, Szabo A, Wegelin J. A population model of prostate cancer incidence. Stat Med. 2006;25:2846-2866.
  • 25
    Gulati R, Inoue L, Katcher J, Hazelton W, Etzioni R. Calibrating disease progression models using population data: a critical precursor to policy development in cancer control. Biostatistics. 2010;11:707-719.
  • 26
    Mariotto A, Etzioni R, Krapcho M, Feuer EJ. Reconstructing PSA testing patterns among black and white men in the US from Medicare claims and the National Health Interview Survey. Cancer. 2007;109:1877-1886.
  • 27
    Thompson IM, Goodman PJ, Tangen CM, et al. The influence of finasteride on the development of prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2003;349:215-224.
  • 28
    Pinsky PF, Andriole GL, Kramer BS, Hayes RB, Prorok PC, Gohagan JK; Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Project Team. Prostate biopsy following a positive screen in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trial. J Urol. 2005;173:746-750; discussion 750-751.
  • 29
    Cooperberg MR, Broering JM, Carroll PR. Time trends and local variation in primary treatment of localized prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2010;28:1117-1123.
  • 30
    Boorjian SA, Thompson RH, Tollefson MK, et al. Long-term risk of clinical progression after biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: the impact of time from surgery to recurrence. Eur Urol. 2011;59:893-899.
  • 31
    Bill-Axelson A, Holmberg L, Ruutu M, et al. Radical prostatectomy versus watchful waiting in early prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2011;364:1708-1717.
  • 32
    Wilt T, Brawer MK, Jones K, Barry M. Radical prostatectomy versus observation for localized prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2012;367:203-213.
  • 33
    Gulati R, Gore JL, Etzioni R. Comparative effectiveness of alternative prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening strategies: model estimates of potential benefits and harms. Ann Intern Med. 2013;158:145-153.
  • 34
    National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1993. Volume II: Mortality, Part A. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2002.
  • 35
    United States Census Bureau. 2004 Interim National Population Projections. Washington, DC: Population Division, United States Census Bureau; 2004.
  • 36
    Chou R, LeFevre ML. Prostate cancer screening–the evidence, the recommendations, and the clinical implications. JAMA. 2011;306:2721-2722.
  • 37
    Miller AB. New data on prostate-cancer mortality after PSA screening. N Engl J Med. 2012;366:1047-1048.
  • 38
    Roobol MJ, Kerkhof M, Schroder FH, et al. Prostate cancer mortality reduction by prostate-specific antigen-based screening adjusted for nonattendance and contamination in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Eur Urol. 2009;56:584-591.
  • 39
    Tasian GE, Cooperberg MR, Cowan JE, et al. Prostate specific antigen screening for prostate cancer: knowledge of, attitudes towards, and utilization among primary care physicians. Urol Oncol. 2012;30:155-160.
  • 40
    Welch HG, Albertsen PC. Prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment after the introduction of prostate-specific antigen screening: 1986-2005. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009;101:1325-1329.
  • 41
    Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J. Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening. Ann Intern Med. 2013;158:831-838.
  • 42
    Gulati R, Wever EM, Tsodikov A, et al. What if I don't treat my PSA-detected prostate cancer? Answers from three natural history models. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2011;20:740-750.
  • 43
    Fesinmeyer MD, Gulati R, Zeliadt S, Weiss N, Kristal AR, Etzioni R. Effect of population trends in body mass index on prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the United States. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2009;18:808-815.
  • 44
    Kenfield SA, Stampfer MJ, Chan JM, Giovannucci E. Smoking and prostate cancer survival and recurrence. JAMA. 2011;305:2548-2555.
  • 45
    Trock BJ, Han M, Freedland SJ, et al. Prostate cancer-specific survival following salvage radiotherapy vs observation in men with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. JAMA. 2008;299:2760-2769.
  • 46
    Drazer MW, Huo D, Schonberg MA, Razmaria A, Eggener SE. Population-based patterns and predictors of prostate-specific antigen screening among older men in the United States. J Clin Oncol. 2011;29:1736-1743.
  • 47
    Walter LC, Bertenthal D, Lindquist K, Konety BR. PSA screening among elderly men with limited life expectancies. JAMA. 2006;296:2336-2342.
  • 48
    Vickers AJ, Cronin AM, Bjork T, et al. Prostate specific antigen concentration at age 60 and death or metastasis from prostate cancer: case-control study. BMJ. 2010;341:c4521.
  • 49
    Grenabo Bergdahl A, Holmberg E, Moss S, Hugosson J. Incidence of prostate cancer after termination of screening in a population-based randomised screening trial. Eur Urol. 2013;64:703-709.
  • 50
    Ganz PA, Barry JM, Burke W, et al. National Institutes of Health State-of-the-Science Conference: role of active surveillance in the management of men with localized prostate cancer. Ann Intern Med. 2012;156:591-595.
  • 51
    Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Wever EM, et al. The impact of PLCO control arm contamination on perceived PSA screening efficacy. Cancer Causes Control. 2012;23:827-835.