SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

References

  • Araújo, M. B., and A. T. Peterson. 2012. Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. Ecology 93:15271539.
  • Araújo, M. B., R. G. Pearson, W. Thuiller, and M. Erhard. 2005. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11:15041513.
  • Araújo, M. B., D. Alagador, M. Cabeza, D. Nogues-Bravo, and W. Thuiller. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol. Lett. 14:484492.
  • Augustin, N. H., M. A. Mugglestone, and S. T. Buckland. 1996. An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlife. J. Appl. Ecol. 33:339347.
  • Baayen, R. H., D. J. Davidson, and D. M. Bates. 2008. Mixed-effects modeling with crossed random effects for subjects and items. J. Mem. Lang. 59:390412.
  • Barbet-Massin, M., W. Thuiller, and F. Jiguet. 2012. The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios. Glob. Change Biol. 18:881890.
  • Bates, A. E., N. S. Barrett, R. D. Stuart-Smith, N. J. Holbrook, P. A. Thompson, and G. J. Edgar. 2014. Resilience and signatures of tropicalization in protected reef fish communities. Nat. Clim. Change 4:6267.
  • Beale, C. M., N. E. Baker, M. J. Brewer, and J. J. Lennon. 2013. Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation. Ecol. Lett. 16:10611068.
  • BirdLife International. 2004a. Birds in Europe: population estimates, trends and conservation status. BirdLife International, Cambridge, U.K.
  • BirdLife International. 2004b. Birds in the European Union: a status assessment. BirdLife International, Wageningen, the Netherlands. Available at http://www.birdlife.org/action/science/species/birds_in_europe/birds_in%20_the_eu.pdf.
  • Brommer, J. E., A. Lehikoinen, and J. Valkama. 2012. The breeding ranges of Central European and Arctic bird species move poleward. PLoS ONE 7:e43648.
  • Chen, I.-C., J. K. Hill, R. Ohleműller, D. B. Roy, and C. D. Thomas. 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333:10241026.
  • Coetzee, B. W. T., M. P. Robertson, B. F. N. Erasmus, B. J. van Rensburg, and W. Thuiller. 2009. Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 18:701710.
  • D'Amen, M., P. Bombi, P. B. Pearman, D. R. Schmatz, N. E. Zimmermann, and M. A. Bologna. 2011. Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy? Biol. Conserv. 144:989997.
  • Dormann, C. F. 2007. Effects of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into the analysis of species distribution data. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16:129138.
  • Dormann, C. F., J. M. McPherson, M. B. Araújo, R. Bivand, J. Bolliger, G. Carl et al. 2007. Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography 30:609628.
  • Dudley, N., ed. 2008. Guidelines for applying protected area management categories. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
  • Eskildsen, A., P. C. le Roux, R. K. Heikkinen, T. T. Høye, W. D. Kissling, J. Pöyry, et al. 2013. Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22:12931303.
  • Fuller, R. A., E. McDonald-Madden, K. A. Wilson, J. Carwardine, H. S. Grantham, J. E. M. Watson, et al. 2010. Replacing underperforming protected areas achieves better conservation outcomes. Nature 466:365367.
  • Geldmann, J., M. Barnes, L. Coad, I. D. Craigie, M. Hockings, and N. D. Burgess. 2013. Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas in reducing habitat loss and population declines. Biol. Conserv. 161:230238.
  • Green, R. E., Y. C. Collingham, S. G. Willis, R. D. Gregory, K. W. Smith, and B. Huntley. 2008. Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change. Biol. Lett. 4:599602.
  • Gregory, R. D., S. G. Willis, F. Jiguet, P. Vořišek, A. Klvaňová, A. van Strien, et al. 2009. An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE 4:e4678.
  • Hagemeijer, W. J. M., and M. J. Blair, eds. 1997. The EBCC Atlas of European breeding birds: their distribution and abundance. T & A D Poyser, Lond.
  • Hannah, L., G. Midgley, S. Andelman, M. Araújo, G. Hughes, E. Martinez-Meyer, et al. 2007. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5:131138.
  • Hanski, I., G. A. Zurita, M. I. Bellocq, and J. Rybicki. 2013. Species-fragmented area relationship. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110:1271512720.
  • Härmä, P., R. Teiniranta, M. Törmä, R. Repo, E. Järvenpää, and M. Kallio. 2004. Production of CORINE2000 Land cover data using calibrated LANDSAT 7 ETM satellite image mosaics and digital maps in Finland. IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium., 27032706.
  • Heath, M. F., and M. I. Evans eds. 2000. Important Bird Areas in Europe: priority sites for conservation. 2 vol. BirdLife International (BirdLife Conservation Series No. 8), Cambridge, U.K.
  • Heikkinen, R. K., M. Luoto, M. B. Araújo, R. Virkkala, W. Thuiller, and M. T. Sykes. 2006a. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 30:751777.
  • Heikkinen, R. K., M. Luoto, and R. Virkkala. 2006b. Does seasonal fine-tuning of climatic variables improve the performance of bioclimatic envelope models for migratory birds? Divers. Distrib. 12:502510.
  • Heikkinen, R. K., M. Luoto, R. Virkkala, R. G. Pearson, and J. H. Körber. 2007. Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16:754763.
  • Heino, R., H. Tuomenvirta, V. S. Vuglinsky, B. G. Gustafsson, H. Alexandersson, L. Bärring, et al. 2008. Past and current climate change. Pp. 35131 in The Bacc Author Team, ed. Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Springer, Berlin & Heidelberg.
  • Hickling, R., D. B. Roy, J. K. Hill, R. Fox, and C. D. Thomas. 2006. The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob. Change Biol. 12:450455.
  • Hijmans, R. J., and C. H. Graham. 2006. The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Glob. Change Biol. 12:22722281.
  • Hole, D. G., S. G. Willis, D. J. Pain, L. D. Fishpool, S. H. M. Butchart, Y. C. Collingham, et al. 2009. Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecol. Lett. 12:420431.
  • Hole, D. G., B. Huntley, J. Arinaitwe, S. H. M. Butchart, Y. C. Collingham, L. D. C. Fishpool, et al. 2011. Toward a management framework for networks of protected areas in the face of climate change. Conserv. Biol. 25:305315.
  • Huntley, B., R. E. Green, Y. C. Collingham, and S. G. Willis. 2007. A climatic atlas of European breeding birds. Durham Univ., The RSPB and Lynx Edicions, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Hyytiä, K., E. Kellomäki, and J. Koistinen. eds. 1983. Suomen lintuatlas (In Finnish). SLY:n Lintutieto Oy, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Jiguet, F., M. Barbet-Massin, V. Devictor, N. Jonzen, and Å. Lindström. 2013. Current population trends mirror forecasted changes in climatic suitability for Swedish breeding birds. Bird Study 60:6066.
  • Johnston, A., M. Ausden, A. M. Dodd, R. B. Bradbury, D. E. Chamberlain, F. Jiguet, et al. 2013. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nat. Clim. Change 3:10551061.
  • Kharouba, H. M., and J. T. Kerr. 2010. Just passing through: global change and the conservation of biodiversity in protected areas. Biol. Conserv. 143:10941101.
  • Kharouba, H. M., A. C. Algar, and J. T. Kerr. 2009. Historically calibrated predictions of butterfly species' range shift using global change as a pseudo-experiment. Ecology 90:22132222.
  • Kujala, H., V. Vepsäläinen, B. Zuckerberg, and J. E. Brommer. 2013. Range margin shifts of birds revisited – the role of spatiotemporally varying survey effort. Glob. Change Biol. 19:420430.
  • Laaksonen, T., and A. Lehikoinen. 2013. Population trends in boreal birds: continuing declines in agricultural, northern, and long-distance migrant species. Biol. Conserv. 168:99107.
  • Legendre, P. 1993. Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm. Ecology 74:16591673.
  • Lehikoinen, A., P. Lehikoinen, A. Lindén, and T. Laine. 2011. Population trend and status of the endangered White-backed Woodpecker Dendrocopos leucotos in Finland. Ornis Fennica 88:195207.
  • Lehikoinen, A., M. Green, M. Husby, J. A. Kålås, and Å. Lindström. 2013. Common montane birds are declining in northern Europe. J. Avian Biol. 45:314.
  • Loarie, S. R., P. B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. P. Asner, C. B. Field, and D. D. Ackerly. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:10521055.
  • Marini, M. A., M. Barbet-Massin, L. E. Lopes, and F. Jiguet. 2009. Major current and future gaps of Brazilian reserves to protect Neotropical savanna birds. Biol. Conserv. 142:30393050.
  • Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37:637669.
  • Pearson, R. G., and T. P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 12:361371.
  • Pereira, H. M., P. W. Leadley, V. Proenca, R. Alcemade, J. P. W. Scharlemann, J. F. Fernandez-Manjarrés, et al. 2010. Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science 330:14961501.
  • Pöyry, J., M. Luoto, R. K. Heikkinen, M. Kuussaari, and K. Saarinen. 2009. Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies. Glob. Change Biol. 15:732743.
  • R Development Core Team. 2013. A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
  • Rassi, P., A. Alanen, T. Kanerva, and I. Mannerkoski, eds. 2001. The 2000 red list of Finnish species (In Finnish with an English summary). Ympäristöministeriö & Suomen ympäristökeskus, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Rassi, P., E. Hyvärinen, A. Juslén, and I. Mannerkoski, eds. 2010. The 2010 red list of Finnish species. Ympäristöministeriö & Suomen ympäristökeskus, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Reino, L., B. Beja, M. B. Araújo, S. Dray, and P. Segurado. 2013. Does local habitat fragmentation affect large-scale distributions? The case of a specialist grassland bird. Divers. Distrib. 19:423432.
  • Rosenzweig, M. L. 1995. Species diversity in space and time. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.
  • Rybicki, J., and I. Hanski. 2013. Speciesarea relationships and extinctions caused by habitat loss and fragmentation. Ecol. Lett. 16:2738.
  • Saurola, P. 2008. Monitoring birds of prey in Finland: a summary of methods, trends, and statistical power. Ambio 37:413419.
  • Sieck, M., P. L. Ibisch, K. A. Moloney, and F. Jeltsch. 2011. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change. BMC Ecol. 11:112.
  • Sinclair, S. J., M. D. White, and G. R. Newell. 2010. How useful are species distribution models for managing biodiversity under future climates? Ecol. Soc. 15:18.
  • Thomas, C. D., P. K. Gillingham, R. B. Bradbury, D. B. Roy, B. J. Anderson, J. M. Baxter, et al. 2012. Protected areas facilitate species' range expansions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109:1406314068.
  • Thuiller, W., S. Lavorel, and M. B. Araújo. 2005. Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 14:347357.
  • Tietäväinen, H., H. Tuomenvirta, and A. Venäläinen. 2010. Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data. Int. J. Climatol. 30:22472256.
  • Väisänen, R. A. 1989. Renewal of methodology in the 2nd bird atlas of Finland, 1986-89. Ann. Zool. Fenn. 26:167172.
  • Väisänen, R. A., E. Lammi, and P. Koskimies. 1998. Distribution, numbers and population changes of Finnish breeding birds (In Finnish with an English summary). Otava, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Valkama, J., V. Vepsäläinen, and A. Lehikoinen. 2011. The Third Finnish Breeding Bird Atlas. Finnish Museum of Natural History and Ministry of Environment, Helsinki. Available at http://atlas3.lintuatlas.fi/english.
  • Velásquez-Tibatá, J., P. Salaman, and C. H. Graham. 2012. Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia. Reg. Environ. Change 13:235248.
  • Venables, W. N., and B. D. Ripley. 2002. Modern applied statistics with S. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
  • Virkkala, R., and A. Rajasärkkä. 2007. Uneven regional distribution of protected areas in Finland: consequences for boreal forest bird populations. Biol. Conserv. 134:361371.
  • Virkkala, R., and A. Rajasärkkä. 2011a. Northward density shift of bird species in boreal protected areas due to climate change. Boreal Environ. Res., 16(Suppl. B):213.
  • Virkkala, R., and A. Rajasärkkä. 2011b. Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas. Biol. Lett. 7:395398.
  • Virkkala, R., and A. Rajasärkkä. 2012. Preserving species populations in the boreal zone in a changing climate: contrasting trends of bird species groups in a protected area network. Nat. Conserv. 3:120.
  • Virkkala, R., T. Alanko, T. Laine, and J. Tiainen. 1993. Population contraction of the white-backed woodpecker Dendrocopos leucotos in Finland as a consequence of habitat alteration. Biol. Conserv. 66:4753.
  • Virkkala, R., A. Rajasärkkä, R. A. Väisänen, M. Vickholm, and E. Virolainen. 1994. The significance of protected areas for the land birds of southern Finland. Conserv. Biol. 8:532544.
  • Virkkala, R., M. Marmion, R. K. Heikkinen, W. Thuiller, and M. Luoto. 2010. Predicting range shifts of northern bird species: influence of modelling technique and topography. Acta Oecol. 36:269281.
  • Virkkala, R., R. K. Heikkinen, S. Fronzek, H. Kujala, and N. Leikola. 2013a. Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate? Biodivers. Conserv. 22:459482.
  • Virkkala, R., R. K. Heikkinen, S. Fronzek, and N. Leikola. 2013b. Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network. PLoS ONE 8:e63376.
  • Watling, J. I., D. N. Bucklin, C. Speroterra, L. A. Brandt, F. J. Mazzotti, and S. S. Romanach. 2013. Validating Predictions from Climate Envelope Models. PLoS ONE 8:e63600.
  • Wiens, J. A., N. E. Seavy, and D. Jongsomjit. 2011. Protected areas in climate space: what will the future bring? Biol. Conserv. 144:21192125.